When health care is cut, queues grow and conditions worsen. Part of the saving comes back later as costlier treatment, and that part grows as long as the cut continues.
Of every 100 euros that a change to “Health” saves or brings in, 15 € comes back as extra spending on the line “Health: hospital services” in the first year, growing 10% a year, up to 60%. (The other way round if the change adds spending or cuts taxes.)
The mechanism is well known, but there is no single figure for Finland. The defaults are estimates to be refined from THL's access-to-care and cost data. The effect also works the other way: more spending lowers later costs.
How the effect builds up over time
Share of the change's own effect on the balance, year by year while the change continues: −15% means 15% of a saving comes back as cost (or 15% of extra revenue is lost). With the default values.
You can switch the effect on or off and adjust its assumptions in the simulator under Cause-and-effect chains.