When outpatient care – for example primary care and mental-health services – is cut, some illnesses drag on and lead to a disability pension a few years later. The increase shows in sickness and disability spending.
Of every 100 euros that a change to “Outpatient care” saves or brings in, 10 € comes back as extra spending on the line “Social protection: sickness and disability”, starting after 3 yrs and building up to its full size over 5 yrs. (The other way round if the change adds spending or cuts taxes.)
Estimate. Mental disorders are among the most common causes of disability pensions, but the effect of cuts on pensions has not been measured directly in Finland. To be refined from the Finnish Centre for Pensions' statistics.
How the effect builds up over time
Share of the change's own effect on the balance, year by year while the change continues: −15% means 15% of a saving comes back as cost (or 15% of extra revenue is lost). With the default values.
You can switch the effect on or off and adjust its assumptions in the simulator under Cause-and-effect chains.