Maintenance backlog grows

Confidence: Low

On by default

Shape: Growing

When maintenance of roads and railways is cut, repairs get more expensive later and part of the saving returns as a growing cost.

Of every 100 euros that a change to “Transport” saves or brings in, 10 € comes back as extra spending on the line “Economic affairs: transport” in the first year, growing 8% a year, up to 50%. (The other way round if the change adds spending or cuts taxes.)

E(t) = T(t) × sign(s) × min(|s| × (1 + growth)ⁿ, maximum share)

Estimate; to be refined from the Finnish Transport Infrastructure Agency's backlog estimates.

How the effect builds up over time

Share of the change's own effect on the balance, year by year while the change continues: −15% means 15% of a saving comes back as cost (or 15% of extra revenue is lost). With the default values.

You can switch the effect on or off and adjust its assumptions in the simulator under Cause-and-effect chains.