Poverty raises the need for child welfare and family support

Confidence: Speculative

Off by default

Shape: Delayed

When social security is cut, poverty deepens among the lowest-income families. Research links child poverty to the need for child welfare and later problems, so part of the saving comes back over the years as spending on family and children's services.

Of every 100 euros that a change to “Social protection (incl. pensions)” saves or brings in, 5 € comes back as extra spending on the line “Social protection: families and children (incl. early childhood education)”, starting after 2 yrs and building up to its full size over 8 yrs. (The other way round if the change adds spending or cuts taxes.)

E(t) = s × T(t) × min(1, max(0, (n − delay + 1) / build-up))

Speculative assumption: the link is researched, but turning it into euros relative to the cut is a rough estimate. Off by default for that reason.

How the effect builds up over time

Share of the change's own effect on the balance, year by year while the change continues: −15% means 15% of a saving comes back as cost (or 15% of extra revenue is lost). With the default values.

You can switch the effect on or off and adjust its assumptions in the simulator under Cause-and-effect chains.